Heat wave: more than 120,000 deaths in 2050 in Europe?

During the summer of 2022, temperatures were above average in most of Europe, but the highest heat-related mortality rates were observed in countries near the Mediterranean Sea. A new analysis by INSERM and the Barcelona Institute for Global Health stresses the urgency of a more effective response to deal with the heat wave. The researchers observed that temperatures were above average in most European countries, but the highest death rates were concentrated in countries near the Mediterranean Sea.

More than 61,000 deaths in Europe due to heat in 2022

According to the analysis carried out, there would have been 61,672 heat-attributable deaths in Europe between May 30 and September 4, 2022. These results are worrying because they highlight the insufficiency of current strategies for adapting to the heat wave. France was particularly affected, with a temperature increase of +2.43 degrees compared to seasonal averages.

Heat wave and death: pessimistic projections for the years to come

Estimates based on the study carried out suggest that in the absence of a more effective adaptive response, the continent could face many excess deaths each summer in the coming decades. Researchers estimate that there could be an average of 68,116 heat-related deaths each summer by 2030, 94,363 deaths by 2040 and 120,610 deaths by 2050.

Increased vulnerability of women and the elderly

The analysis also revealed women’s greater vulnerability to heat, particularly among people over the age of 80. The mortality rate for these people is 27% higher than for men. Older women are particularly at risk, implying a need to take gender and age differences into account when designing heat wave adaptation policies.