Jean-François Delfraissy indicated last night that the emergence of new variants (English, South African, Brazilian, Japanese, German and Californian) “completely change the situation”. The British mutation could even lead to “the equivalent of a second pandemic” according to the President of the Scientific Council.
Variants: a critical situation
The week will be “critical” declared the chairman of the board Jean-François Delfraissy. “If we continue without doing anything more, we will be in an extremely difficult situation from mid-March,” he warns. He points out that “the variants have been a game-changer for the past three weeks. They appear in multiple ways, have higher transmission factors, and accelerate transmission ”. While the English variant represents 7 to 9% in the Paris region, “there will be 12%, 14%, 15% of the British variant in the coming weeks. […] if we continue, ”says the president. For the South African variant, it is “maybe already around 1%”. The Brazilian variant is also close, since we “have an entry point with Guyana”.
In terms of the number of contaminations, France is well below that before the 2nd containment and seems suitable. However, Dr Delfraissy encourages “to change our software” because it is “a false security”, which “will not be able to last”. “It’s the equivalent of a second pandemic, this variant [britannique] “. To reverse this epidemic trend, he believes that it is necessary to adapt the next February holidays, by grouping the zones and adding a week.
What impact on vaccines?
These variants could lead to a modification of the strategy put in place: “Are these variants sensitive to vaccines?” We have an element of answer for the English variant, it seems, with preliminary data, that it is sensitive to the two RNA messenger vaccines ”.
Concerning the South African and Brazilian mutations, they could oppose a stronger resistance to immunizations: “On the other hand, the South African variant and the Brazilian variant, are only very little neutralized, at the same time by monoclonal antibodies, which in general neutralize the virus, and are not neutralized by antibodies from patients who have already had a Covid, so there is no protection. And finally in the first data, an American study shows that on the South African variant, there is a decrease in the effectiveness of vaccines of about 40% ”reveals Jean-François Delfraissy.
Only the Moderna vaccine would be effective against the new English and South African variants, according to the pharmaceutical group Moderna Inc. It “protects against the variants detected on this date”, by producing antibodies which neutralize these mutations. However, the company indicated that a study for an additional dose was underway to increase neutralization.
