If the incidence rate remains the same, there could be up to 1.7 million people with dementia in England and Wales by 2040, more than 40% more than originally predicted .
- Initially, scientists predicted that the number of people with dementia would increase from 0.77 million in 2016 to 1.2 million in 2040.
- In this study, they show that, if the incidence rate continues to increase, there could be 1.7 million people with dementia in 2040.
- This would correspond to a 42% larger increase than initially planned.
Dementia in England and Wales could be 42% higher than expected by 2040, according to a new study published in the journal The Lancet Public Health.
1.7 million people with dementia in 2040
Initially, scientists predicted a 57% increase in the number of people with dementia, from 0.77 million in 2016 to 1.2 million in 2040. But, in this new work, researchers estimate that this figure could reach 1 .7 million in 2040, an increase of 42% more than initially forecast.
“It will be devastating for those affected, but it will also be a very heavy burden on health and social services, explain Dr. Yuntao Chenmain author of this study, in a communicated. Continued monitoring of this trend will be crucial to guide social protection policy.“
To achieve this result, the researchers studied data from people over the age of 50 who lived in England and Wales between 2002 and 2019. Thus, they found that the incidence rate of dementia (percentage of the population with dementia in each age group) had decreased by 28.8% between 2002 and 2008 but increased again by 25.2% between 2008 and 2016.
They note that these figures were greater among the least educated people: the decline was greater between 2002 and 2008 and the increase more rapid after 2008.
Guarantee suitable structures for dependent people
People with dementia are most often dependent. Scientists therefore believe that this future increase should be taken into account by public authorities in order to guarantee care for all citizens.
“Dementia may become a more pressing political issue than previously thought, explains Professor Eric Brunner, principal researcher of this study. The UK must be prepared and be able to assure everyone affected that, whatever their financial situation, they will be able to access the help and support they need.”
According to the World Health Organization (WHO), more than 55 million people live with dementia worldwide, more than 60% of them in low- and middle-income countries. Every year there are almost 10 million new cases.
