The news is not so surprising, the alert has been raised in recent days. With several thousand new daily contaminations, the Minister of Health affirms it today “Yes, the fourth wave is here“.
“What changes, compared to the first waves, is that the virus goes very quickly and is much more contagious”, involved the Delta variant, indicated on RTL the Minister of Health. “We are between 100 to 130% increase in cases”, he adds. According to Olivier Véran, vaccination should be considered as “An extraordinary means” to get out of the epidemic.
“If we hadn’t had the vaccine with the Delta variant today, we wouldn’t be talking about a wave today. I believe it was Gabriel Attal who rightly spoke of the tsunami. If we did not have the vaccine to protect the most vulnerable, I am not even sure that generalized confinement will allow us to protect our hospitals and save as many lives as we have been able to save with the decisions of the President of the Republic. during the year 2020 “, he said.
What will this new wave look like?
According to a recent projection by the Institut Pasteur, the number of hospital admissions in the coming days will be around 2,500 people per day. A smaller peak than last fall (2850) but which is more violent than at the end of April 2000. As for vaccination coverage, it should be 30% for 12-17 year olds, 70% for 18-59 year olds and 90% for over 60s.
Asked by Le Figaro on this subject, Pr Antoine Flahault, epidemiologist and director of the Institute of Global Health at the University of Geneva does not exclude a new saturation of hospitalizations “the different waves each affected 3 or 4% of 50-60 year olds . With the proportion of this unvaccinated age group, the virus can easily recruit the same proportion of patients and clutter up hospitals, and potentially lead to new restrictive measures ”.
But unlike the previous waves, the French will have to face this time the virulent Delta variant, which is predominant in France. Unvaccinated young people will potentially be at risk of developing Covid-19. “We risk seeing younger patients in intensive care. But above all, they risk transmitting the Covid. I am particularly worried about the unvaccinated 50-60 year olds “, deplores Antoine Flahault.
