The indicators are in the red and constantly increasing since the beginning of September. As of October 22, 957,421 cases have been confirmed, or 26,676 more people in 24 hours. Faced with this worrying health situation, is a reconfinement possible in France?
What do the statistics say?
The number of people admitted to intensive care because of Covid-19 continues to grow: more than 2,000 people have been in this service since Monday, October 19. This figure had not been so high since mid-May. More than 70 people (71) arrived in this specialized service in 24 hours (from October 21 to 22). In addition, 13,185 patients are hospitalized, or 727 more in 24 hours. While the curfew has “proven its worth” in Guadeloupe, some European countries have taken the decision to reconfine their population, such as Ireland or the Wales. In France, the curfew is applied from 9 p.m. to 6 a.m., for a minimum of 4 weeks. Different countries are affected unequally and each makes decisions accordingly. What are the elements that could lead to a second confinement in France?
Why would confinement be possible a second time in France?
An uncontrolled epidemic
Four scenarios were mentioned this summer, by Jean Castex and Olivier Véran. In the first and second, the epidemic is under control thanks to the strategy “test, trace and isolate”: It is thanks to tests, the tracing of patients and isolation that the epidemic is controlled as well as the measures taken locally. In other cases, reassembling the transmission chains is impossible. The measures are then reinforced in the regions and metropolitan areas. In the last scenario, “the epidemic reaches a critical stage”And efforts to contain the epidemic are unsuccessful. The country is therefore reconfined. This is the case in Ireland, which has been reconfiguring its population since Wednesday, October 21 for a period of six weeks and in Wales, from October 23, for two weeks, in the hope of being able to celebrate Christmas “correctly”.
Saturated hospital services
Some hospitals are under pressure, with a lack of resources or equipment and exhausted nursing staff. However, healthcare establishments are increasing their capacity for receiving intensive care patients, but the occupancy rate of intensive care beds sometimes exceeds it. This is the case in Ile-de-France, where the Regional Health Agency announced on Wednesday that with “661 patients, we exceeded 57% occupancy“. Covid-19 patients sometimes have to be transferred to another hospital in France.
The WHO alert
The tracing system in many countries is broken, according to Dr Michael Ryan. Tracing and quarantine efforts have, however, borne fruit in Asia, for example. Dr Maria Van Kerkhove added that the “cluster concept (infections during gatherings) does not penetrate people’s minds” while “it is one of the hallmarks of coronaviruses”. In addition, when the population lowers its guard and relaxes its efforts in the application of barrier gestures, the number of cases increases again and threatens the hospital system, according to the director general of the WHO, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.
For the moment, no official information plans to reconfine the French population.
