Covid-19: 9% excess mortality in 2020 compared to 2019

The Covid has indeed caused the number of deaths to soar. In 2020, 53,900 more deaths than the previous year were recorded according to a provisional report made public on Friday January 15, 2021 by INSEE. This recorded increase of 9% corresponds to the figures unveiled on last march 17 by researchers from the National Institute for Demographic Studies (INED). In total, “667,400 deaths from all causes are recorded in 2020 in France, i.e. 9% more than in 2018 or 2019”, specifies the statistical institute.

27% more deaths during the first wave

These additional deaths are, in large part, due to the coronavirus epidemic which alone has led to 68,000 deaths. However, the year 2020 began with lower mortality, due in particular to a less virulent seasonal flu than in previous years. In the first two months of the year, there were 7,500 fewer deaths than at the start of 2019, revealed INSEE. On the other hand, the following months which coincide with the first wave of Covid-19, between 1^er March and April 30, saw mortality increase by 27% in 2020. During the second wave, between the 1^er September and December 31, 16% more people died in 2020 compared to 2019. Cumulatively, the two waves resulted in more than 60,000 more deaths than in 2019.

In its study, INED also estimated that some of the people who died from Covid-19 would be “anyway” died of another cause, explaining why the excess mortality does not correspond exactly to the number of people who died from Covid-19. “Covid-19 deaths have partly hit frail people with other illnessescontinue the researchers. A fraction of them would have died anyway in 2020, even in the absence of the Covid-19 epidemic. Their death would then have been attributed to another cause (diabetes, cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory failure, etc.).” It is for the moment impossible to quantify the importance of this phenomenon for lack of data, specify the researchers.

Ile-de-France, the most affected region

In addition, INSEE estimates that the real death toll of the victims of the epidemic could be even higher because of the “protective effect”containments, in particular on the flu epidemic and road accidents which normally should have led to a reduction in mortality. The regions with the largest mortality excesses compared to 2019 are Île-de-France (+18%) and Grand-Est (+13), Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes (+14%) and Burgundy-Franche-Comté (+11%). In addition, concludes INSEE, the excess mortality mainly concerns people aged over 65 (+10%).

This increase in mortality from one year to the next is not without consequences. INED demographers estimate that it “results in reduced life expectancy at birth”. For women, it goes from 85.6 years to 85.2 years (0.4 years less) and from 79.8 to 79.2 years for men (0.6 years less).