The number of people with low back pain will increase dramatically by 2050 to over 800 million.
- After studying more than 30 years of data from 204 countries, the researchers observed an increase in cases of significant low back pain.
- They estimate that 834 million people will suffer from low back pain in 2050.
- This increase in cases of back pain is largely related to the growth and aging of the population. Indeed, the study confirmed that low back pain is more common in older people.
Back pain is extremely common. According to’Health Insurance, 4 out of 5 individuals will have low back pain during their lifetime, and more than half of French people have experienced an episode in the last twelve months. These numbers are not likely to decrease. An Australian study, published in the journal Lancet Rheumatology on May 23, 2023, shows that the number of people affected by lower back pain will increase significantly by 2050.
Low back pain: a significant increase in cases by 2050
To find out the prevalence of back pain over the next few decades, scientists analyzed more than 30 years of data from 204 countries. They estimated that 834 million people will suffer from low back pain in 2050, an increase of more than 30% compared to the number of cases recorded in 2020 (619 million).
For the team, this increase in the number of cases of back pain will be largely linked to the increase and aging of the population. The studies have, in fact, confirmed that low back pain is more common in the elderly.
Back pain: it is necessary to take measures
The aging of the population is not the only cause of lower back pain. Scientists have found that occupational factors, smoking, and being overweight are responsible for at least a third of back pain-related disabilities. In addition, women are more affected by low back pain than men.
“Our analysis paints a picture of the growth in cases of low back pain around the world, which is placing enormous pressure on our healthcare system. We need to establish a national, consistent approach to low back pain management that is backed by research. “says lead author Professor Manuela Ferreira of the Sydney Musculoskeletal Health program in a communicated.
WHO Head of Unit Dr Alarcos Cieza reacted to the new data and estimates: “Ministries of Health cannot continue to ignore the high prevalence of musculoskeletal disorders, including low back pain. These conditions have significant social and economic consequences, especially given the cost of care. Now is the time to learn from the effective strategies to cope with this heavy burden and to act”. In particular, according to the researchers, it is necessary to adopt guidelines adapted to elderly patients.