There is no longer any debate, scientists agree that it is imperative to limit global warming below 2 ° C (the figure of 1.5 ° C is no longer realistic!). Otherwise the consequences of global warming will be dramatic for man and nature.
In recent times, we have seen that natural disasters are on the increase. Climate change requires, life on Earth is already significantly impacted and will continue to transform in the years and decades to come.
Can we cope? Does mankind have the capacities to adapt under conditions that she still finds it hard to imagine?
Tomorrow that is disillusioning
For a quarter of a century, the IPCC warned us, but on the side of the leaders of the world, nothing has been done … or very little. Even if the emissions of greenhouse gas started to decline tomorrow morning (yes, it will continue to increase in 2021), the devastating effects of global warming on biodiversity and humanity are accelerating and becoming more and more concrete.
For this eleventh and last episode of the Café climat series, I wanted to take advantage of the insights of recognized specialists in the issue, Jean-Marc Jancovici and Pablo Servigne.
In a conference given in Geneva, the engineer and energy specialist Jean-Marc Jancovici, author of the famous Sleep peacefully until 2100, explained the situation in Europe and the probable consequences of global warming for humanity.
Twentieth-century Europe offered climatic conditions for large plant species as trees can grow. This means that the climate was sufficiently humid and mild and that it was neither too cold nor too hot for the vegetation to thrive.
20,000 years ago the situation was very different in Europe. The climate was much colder and much drier due to the influence of the solar system.
The consequences of global warming
The orbit of the earth is not constant over time because we experience the attraction of Jupiter and Saturn. It is this irregularity in the orbit of our planet that has notably caused the great glacial cycles over the past three million years.
There was a transfer of water from the ocean, the level of which gradually fell by 120 m. A thick layer of ice was formed to completely cover northern territories such as Scandinavia, the United Kingdom and Greenland.
To go from Europe of 20,000 years ago to present-day Europe, it is easy to understand that the planet has warmed up. Now this massive transformation is due to global warming of the order of only 4 to 5 degrees in 10,000 years.
We must now compare this to the current risk of global warming of 4 degrees in a century. This will produce a such upheaval in living conditions existing and such deficiencies on basic needs of humanity (especially in terms of food) that the consequences are difficult to anticipate.
The only thing that is certain is that the stability of the world will not resist it and that the living conditions (survival?) for man will become chaotic.
The metaphor of the canoe
For Pablo Servigne, the author of How everything can fall apart, the finding is more or less identical. He argues that the type of situation we find ourselves in always results in three things: war, disease and famine.
And he even specifies: ” the three are interconnected and feed off each other. We won’t be able to resolve all the causes, but it always ends like this!”
Servigne confirms it, the consequences of global warming are not bad, they are disastrous. Yet, eager to give meaning and hope, he compares the crisis we are experiencing to a boat being driven, at full speed, towards a huge waterfall …
” Imagine that we are in a canoe, we see that it is accelerating, it is moving, we can no longer row backwards, it is too late and in front, at 200 m, there is a gigantic fall, the great void … Fright and astonishment in the canoe. On the other hand, there is someone in the canoe (it’s the IPCC) who says “look there on the left, there is still a small rock. We can hope to hang on to it if we all row together now, thoroughly and in a coordinated manner. All together, of course, means all of humanity.”
Irreparable warming
The bottom line is that we don’t know exactly what to expect, we just know that it will get worse and worse. The sooner we do it to massively reduce emissions from greenhouse gas (CO2, methane, nitrous oxide, etc.), the more we will limit the terrible consequences of global warming for humanity.
But Jean-Marc Jancovici repeats it in all his lectures: “ climate change has such inertia that climate changes are already written for the next 20 years.”
In other words, this means that even if we stop all greenhouse gas emissions tomorrow, the planet would continue to heat up at high speed for the next 20 years! It is already too late to act on the consequences of global warming over the next two decades.
This topic closes the Café climat series that I had the pleasure of achieving with a primarily educational objective.
If you enjoyed this series of articles and videos and allowed you to better understand climate issues, share it without moderation because, in environmental matters as in all fields, knowledge is always the first step towards action.
