The film shows the devastating effects of a super virus against which there is initially no vaccine. Is this scenario credible?
Absolutely, say the experts. Several elements of the film are inspired by the episode of SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) “With the SARS epidemic we did not go far from a large-scale disaster”, observes Arnaud Fontanet, doctor specializing in epidemiology infectious and tropical diseases. And to evoke several disturbing similarities: the death rate due to SARS was almost identical to that which rages in the film Contagion (20%). Ditto for the reproduction rate of between 2 and 4. In other words, we observed 2 to 4 secondary cases for a contagious person.
A notable difference, however, between SARS and the virus in the film Contagion, the control of the epidemic. “We were very lucky with SARS because we managed to control the epidemic, underlines Arnaud Fontanet, also co-director of the Pasteur-Cnam School of Public Health. In infected patients, a week passed between the first symptoms and when they became contagious. This was enough time to identify, isolate and quarantine the infected patients. “
If a global pandemic were to strike, would we be sufficiently prepared?
To this question that everyone is asking, difficult for specialists to provide a categorical and reassuring answer. Anticipating an inherently unpredictable super-virus potential is an almost impossible task. “We are never ready for an epidemic infectious phenomenon whose characteristics we do not know, underlines François Bricaire, head of the infectious and tropical diseases department at the Pitié-Salpêtrière hospital. We are certainly never prepared, but we have to work to be as good as possible. “
In the background, there is the question of how to organize the means to respond effectively to a pandemic. According to Patrick Yeni, head of the infectious diseases pole at Bichat hospital, technical and logistical knowledge has improved since the SARS epidemic, avian influenza and the influenza A / H1N1. And the WHO is paying close attention to the pandemic risk. What to be reassured? Not quite, because some unknowns remain: “In the event of a new pandemic, can not predict the target people, the speed of spread of the virus, the death rate and the means of control without being confronted with it”, indicates Patrick Yeni.
How to improve the fight against the contagion of a virus?
The last two influenza pandemics (H5N1 and H1N1) have not only made it possible to improve vaccine research but especially to realize the importance of adopting good basic hygiene. Gestures that may seem superficial but unstoppable when you know that a shake of hands or a doorknob is enough to accelerate the spread of a deadly virus. “Basic measures such as hand washing, the use of hydro-alcoholic gels, the wearing of masks can improve the fight against infectious disease “, assures Patrick Yeni. A point of view shared by Arnaud Fontanet:” Barrier measures such as clothing, quarantine, adequate equipment, are not effective in combating the virus but it is the only solution to limit the risks while awaiting the development of a vaccine.
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Contagion, directed by Steven Soderbergh with Marion Cotillard, Matt Damon, Laurence Fishburne, Jude Law, Gwyneth Paltrow, Kate Winslet. Released in theaters November 9. More info on http://www.warnerbros.fr/contagion