A new study predicts a dramatic increase in Ebola cases in West Africa and questions the relevance of the quarantine measures imposed on populations.
The numbers are alarming. A study, published in the online journal PLoS Outbreaks predicts an increase in new cases of Ebola, the number of which would stand at 6,800 within just a month if no new health plan is initiated. Since the start of the epidemic, just over eight months, the virus has killed 2,622 out of 5,335 confirmed cases.
To arrive at such predictions, researchers at the University of Arizona and Harvard University have used methods approved by the World Health Organization, and applied since the beginning of September. Analyzes are based on local data. The study was funded by the US National Institute of Health.
Quarantine questioned
Researchers note an exponential increase in the cases detected in Liberia and Guinea during the month of August, even as these countries put in place drastic measures to quarantine the population.
According to the study, confining the population to their homes would have actually worsened the situation. In the areas concerned, living conditions and hygiene have deteriorated significantly, accelerating the transmission of the virus between residents.
Sierra Leone yesterday announced the quarantine of its six million people, a controversial move that sparked riots two weeks earlier in Liberia. A slideshow by photojournalist John Moore helps to achieve living conditions in quarantine centers.
Some associations are also alarmed about the risks associated with confinement. Action Against Hunger (ACF) has thus produced a statement to recall that “in the past, for other epidemic crises such as those of cholera or the plague, experience has shown that quarantine measures and embargoes to prevent the movement of people and goods were not only unnecessary but created conditions favorable to major socio-economic crises ”.
A more contagious virus
“Other reasons could also explain this increase in new cases. It is possible that the virus has become more contagious, ”explain the researchers, who also point to the lack of resources to enforce real quarantine measures, in acceptable sanitary conditions.
To conclude, the study recalls the risks of seeing the virus spreading to the rest of Africa and to other continents, given the speed at which it is spreading in very densely populated areas. And these alarmist forecasts are unfortunately not the first of their kind. The WHO itself said in late August that the total number of cases could reach 20,000. And in early September, the physicist Alessandro Vespignani published in Science, even more worrying figures: the number of patients could reach 10,000 before September 24, and hundreds thousands in the following months, he predicted.
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