Life expectancy, fertility, cause of death: what does the INED report say about the French?

France, which had 68.4 million inhabitants on January 1, is seeing its population age, its births slow down and its fertility drop drastically. Here are the conclusions of the new report from the National Institute of Demographic Studies (INED) published on December 16, 2024.

France: the lowest fertility rate since the post-war period

France remains one of the youngest countries in the European Union. However, INED experts have noticed an acceleration in the aging of the population, driven among other things by a notable decrease in the number of births. In fact, 678,000 babies were born on French soil in 2023, or 48,000 fewer than the previous year. This represents a drop of 6.6% in one year. “The number of births is decreasing mainly due to the decline in fertility (rather than a decline in the number of women of childbearing age)“, write the authors in their report.

Overall, the fertility rate was 1.67 children per woman in 2022 and 1.64 in mainland France. This is the lowest level observed since the post-war period. “In 2023, the fertility profile by age in France is close to that observed in the countries of Western and Northern Europe, later than in the Baltic countries and Eastern Europe, but more early than for those of the South”specifies the report. However, despite this drop in fertility, France is the 2nd most fertile European country, behind Bulgaria.

Death from cancer: a French particularity?

According to expert estimates, 631,000 deaths were recorded throughout France in 2023. This represents 44,122 fewer deaths compared to 2022. Although the number has been falling for 3 years, it remains higher than that observed before the Covid pandemic. -19.

On the other hand, life expectancy has, for its part, increased over the same period. It is now 80 years for men and 85.7 years for women (compared to 79.7 and 85.6 years respectively in 2019). This rebound is less significant than in other European countries. However, France remains among the “good students” since French women are on the 3rd step of the European podium of women who live the longest. The French are, for their part, in 11^e position.

“However, as in most European countries, progress in life expectancy is slowing: between 1999 and 2009, the total gain in lifespan for the EU27 was 4.2 years for men (2, 8 years in France) and 3.5 years for women (1.9 years in France), compared to only 2.0 years for men (same figure in France) and 1.2 years for women (1.1 years in France) between 2009 and 2019. For the most recent period, strongly affected by the Covid-19 epidemic (from 2019 to 2022), the loss in the EU27 was 0.8 years for men (0 .4 year in France) and 1.0 year for women (0.4 year in France)”warn the authors in their report.

Although the French live to a long age, mortality among those under 65 is still high, particularly due to a high infant mortality rate. The latter places, in fact, the country at 23^e place out of 27. After age 65, the prognoses are very favorable, especially for women. “The mortality gap between men and women is higher in France than the European average, but it continues to fall in 2023: excess male mortality decreases at all ages, despite maintaining two peaks at 20-24 years and at 60-64 years.”

The study also takes stock of the causes of death of French people. And on this point, the country presents a particularity compared to its neighbors. The leading cause of death is cancer, while it is cardiovascular diseases in Europe. However, don’t panic. The researchers point out that cancer deaths remain lower in France than in most EU27 members.

Another observation: the oldest European countries are located in the South (Spain, Italy and Portugal) and the East (Bulgaria and Finland), while the youngest are Ireland and four sparsely populated countries (Luxembourg, Slovenia, Malta and Cyprus).