Invited on Friday October 22 on BFMTV and RMC, the Minister of Health gave an update on the Covid-19 epidemic. “In Europe we are witnessing a small outbreak of Covid-19”he said. Arnaud Fontanet, professor at the Institut Pasteur and member of the scientific council, made the same observation this Sunday in the columns of the Journal du Dimanche. “It’s climbing in Ireland, Belgium, the Netherlands, Denmark or Germany, but the situation remains under control. On the other hand, Russia and Eastern Europe are facing a violent wave and the United Kingdom, stuck since July on a high plateau, is experiencing a strong surge. Only Italy, Spain and Portugal seem to have been spared for the moment.”
However, the situation is not comparable to that observed last fall when France experienced its second wave. According to the Minister of Health, “we are around 5000 cases per day, and above all we do not measure the health impact, there is no increase in hospitalizations as last fall”.
And for good reason, the difference with last year is that nearly three quarters (73.9% on October 24) of French people received a complete vaccination schedule.
First reason: the weather effect
Olivier’s explanation Veran is simple, it’s the weather effect: “It’s cold outside, it’s more humid, like all respiratory viruses, when it’s cold and humid, it circulates more, we expected it.”
And in fact, when it’s cold, we gather more in closed places, and we ventilate the rooms less when it should be done more. The result is that this human promiscuity promotes the circulation of the virus and contagions.
Admittedly, the end of free screening tests since October 15 may have have an impact on the number of cases (fewer negative cases) butthe numberR [nombre de personnes contaminées par un cas positif ] has just crossed the bar of 1 again, meaning that the virus is circulating again.
Second reason: the decline in the effectiveness of vaccination ?
Scientists are Nevertheless reassuring, vaccination should prevent a new wave. Provided that the booster vaccination campaign progresses. In recent days, the government has been constantly reminding all the importance of doing a booster dose in order toe reboost immunity, which decreases 6 months after the second dose. “Two million people have had this reminder but it’s not enough”lamented Olivier Veran.
According to Arnaud Fontanet, the decline in the effectiveness of vaccines against infection could add to the weather effect. He justifies: “Even if the latter continue to protect over 90% against severe forms of the disease, protection against infection goes from 80% two months after the second dose to 50% after six months. But many 18-49 year olds were vaccinated at the beginning of the summer. It is in this age group, often involved in epidemic outbreaks, that the decline in vaccine effectiveness will be felt from November.“
In his last epidemiological bulletin, Public Health France remind the iimportance of combined measures to fight against Covid-19 : there vaccination, including a booster for those aged 65 and over, I’membership in contacttracing and THE compliance with barrier measures.
Sources:
- Interview with Olivier Véran, BFMTV and RMC, October 22, 2021.
- Interview Arnaud Fontanet, JDD, October 24, 2021.
- French Public Health, epidemiological update of October 21, 2021.
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